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Thread: MP math help please - I think I got screwed over by at least a factor of two

  1. #41
    Sister of Radiance Thalain's Avatar
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    If it first rolled the tier with the stated 10/20/30/40 distribution and then the item in the tier (rerolling within the tier), a MP with all but one top row item unique would yield endless free PC after an initial investment. You'd have 10% chance at the red bag once you have all the uniques. The red bag's average value is 75 x .4 + 150 x .3 + 250 x .2 + 1000 x .1 or 287.5 PC. At 10 tries average to get one, you'd spend 150 PC to get those 287.5 PC - a positive expectation.

  2. #42
    Disciple of the Traveller Ahlyis's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thalain View Post
    If it first rolled the tier with the stated 10/20/30/40 distribution and then the item in the tier (rerolling within the tier), a MP with all but one top row item unique would yield endless free PC after an initial investment. You'd have 10% chance at the red bag once you have all the uniques. The red bag's average value is 75 x .4 + 150 x .3 + 250 x .2 + 1000 x .1 or 287.5 PC. At 10 tries average to get one, you'd spend 150 PC to get those 287.5 PC - a positive expectation.
    Additionally, it would require there to be a non-unique item on every tier. If it worked that way, the game would crash (or at least get stuck in an endless loop) with those relic packs that have all unique items in tiers 1, 2 and 3 and troops in tier 4.
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  3. #43
    Golden Garden Monk LordRaven's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ahlyis View Post
    I know you are just trolling, but whatever. I'm bored at work...

    There's just a slight difference between "throw a coin 100 times and tally how many heads you got." and "throw a coin 1 time and add it to an already existing result of 99 tails". Your position requires us to ignore the probability involved with having obtained those 99 consecutive tails. You just want to take them as a given and then say only the last throw matters and it is 50-50 therefore the entire process was 50-50.

    Again, I know you're being a massive troll here and I shouldn't feed you, but as I said, I'm bored.

    *shrug*
    But who said anything about those two scientific tests before you? Add on, didn't you just say it wasn't 50/50?! Ah, who cares! I am the troll saying flipping a coin does not yield a 50/50 chance for heads or tails!

    *shrug*

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  4. #44
    Disciple of the Traveller Ahlyis's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by LordRaven View Post
    Ah, who cares!
    Works for me.
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  5. #45
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    Interesting discussion, so MP is just some kind of gambling ...

  6. #46
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    if you flipped 99 head in a row already, the next one would be a 50/50 chance to get head

    but that is ignoring the fact of how you get to the 99 head in a row.

    For example:

    - if you are flipping 1 coin, the chance to get head is 50% and the chance to get tail is 50%

    -if you are flipping 2 coin, there are 4 possible results from both coin toss(
    HH/HT/TT/TH)
    *as a result, the first coin you toss have an equal chance of being head or tailmeaning you cannot simply say "If you already tossed 99 head" as that would be failing to understand the 4 possible outcome
    (HH/HT/TT/TH) In this case, the possibility of not getting either tail or head at least once is 1/4 and the possibility of you getting it at least once is 3/4

    going back to what I stated in white above, it is correct to say that after getting 99 consecutive head, the chance of getting head on the 100th is still 50%. However, this is completely ignoring the 2^99 or 1/6.338253 * 10^29 likelihood of how you get 99 consecutive head in the first place

    Last edited by haidao0923; 11th July 2018 at 21:44.

  7. #47
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    This is the gambler fallacy:

    You have a pile of 6 tiles (2x A/2x B/2x C)

    you get to draw 2 tiles blindfolded.

    George drew an A on the first time and his chance to draw an A again is decrease


    This is the scenario where the gambler's fallacy is correct.

    In other word the gambler's fallacy is simply misused to calculate the wrong type of data.

    In MP you do not take away a non unique item (consumable) from the pile of possible loot after getting it, so we must apply what I wrote in the post earlier, or the rule that applies to rolling dices

    Furthermore, as is every random generator, you cannot simply say "If I got head the first time" because the chance of "If I got tail the first time" is equally likely to occur.


  8. #48
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    In conclusion, to apply this to the MP

    for every tries, the % of getting what you wants at least once is increased by the % of getting what you don't want at least once.

    Conversely, the % of not getting what you want can be calculated by multiplying it by itself (reduced by the % of what you want) each tries.

    As a result you can get the end results by doing (99/100)^n where n is the number of try to get the percentage of what you don't want and subtracting it from 100% to get what you want.

    if you already have a premium it would only remove that premium's % from the entire MP meaning if the premium you owned was worth 1% then to get another 1% premium, it would be 100 - (98/99)^n = %

  9. #49
    Disciple of the Traveller Ahlyis's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by haidao0923 View Post
    if you flipped 99 head in a row already, the next one would be a 50/50 chance to get head
    That makes the assumption that the coin, when flipped, has a 50/50 chance of coming up either heads or tails.

    IF you already got 99 heads in a row, I would argue that the chance of that happening with a "fair" coin is so remote that the odds are much much higher that the coin you are flipping is NOT a "fair" coin with a 50/50 chance of either heads or tails (or the environment you are flipping in is somehow affecting the outcome), and thus, the odds of getting heads on your next flip is probably closer to 100% with that coin than it is to 50/50.

    After 99 heads in a row, I'd double check that I wasn't flipping a two-headed coin!

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  10. #50
    Silver Arrow
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    exactly!

    The problem that LordRaven and other doesn't get is that you cannot say "If you flipped 99 in a row" because the probability of getting that specific combination of coin flip would be 1 out of 2^99 which is basically impossible. and the probably of getting at least one tail would be (2^99 -1)/(2^99) which is the exaggerated form of 1

    This is because for every HT or HH combination, there is an equal chance of getting TH and TT

  11. #51
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    Im up to 58 tries and 0 premiums from MP (on MPs were I only had 1 or 2 T1 tops).

    With these types of situations, what people typically think of is the expected value. Over a very very large sample size in your example above the coin landings should converge towards 50%. The rules change here cause the uniques change the odds but in general that should be the case. Going back to your point, Ahlyis, I should have less chance of not getting a premium in 58 attempts than the probability of actually getting a premium =).

    Irregardless of the math, I think the MP can be punishing for certain people and very rewarding for other people. What really sucked for me more than not getting a premium was the fact that I ended up with nothing useful for 870PC. That was kind of hard to swallow. Im willing to pay for stuff, but not pay for nothing.

    For newer players I would just recommend being cautious and to not have any expectations.

  12. #52
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    wow 58 try and no premium, you are the exception to the rule

    Let's say that both of those 2 premium you had equates to 4%.

    That would mean the chance of you not getting the remaining premium or enigma enigma would be 6%.

    Therefore, the chance of you not getting what you want would be 90/96

    using the formula (90/96)^58 would mean that you had a 97.6% chance of getting a premium or enigma enigma at least once

  13. #53
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    Yeah, I regret it a little bit. should have bought something else with that PC but **** happens. Cant fool me 59 times though =P.

  14. #54
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    I am pretty lucky with my MP lol always get 1 in every 7 or so pack and around 12 more get second one

    so I have a 52% chance of getting the first one in 7 pack

    and a 66% chance to get another in 12 pack

  15. #55
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    my record spending is to get 3 premium in 36 pack

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