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Thread: MP math help please - I think I got screwed over by at least a factor of two

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    Golden Garden Monk
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    MP math help please - I think I got screwed over by at least a factor of two

    https://prnt.sc/hfji6s

    396 PC spent for 33 MP picks at 12 PC a pop.

    I already had Tuss, Utym, Kezeraa, and Fontella per the screen cap above.

    I only could get Tomb or Mach, but received none and no pc bags either.

    Not counting the improved odds of 6% by having the 4 other premiums, I had a 6% chance each roll to get a pc bag or one of the two remaining premiums. Dividing 100/6 gives me 16.6666667 which is the amount of MP it should take to get one of these five items (3 PC bags or 2 prems). I did twice that and got neither.


    I know there a ton of whiners about not winning MP, and yes I am a mp fool, but it does seem odd that I spent so much and didn't any of those items.

    Did I factor my odds correctly? And how much more did I get screwed over given I had a 6% better chance given I already had 4 prems to start with?

    Thanks for you help. There is something about maths that makes my brain want to vomit.

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    Golden Garden Monk
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    I think to factor in the improved odds it would be 100-6= 94, 94/6=15.66667 to get one of the 2 remaining prems or a pc bag. (Screwed over by a factor of more than two.)

    And my odds to get one of the 2 prems would be 94/3=31.33 and I did 33 so I should have gotten one per these odds about 2 mp ago. Not Guaranteed but if the odds are correct it should happen right?

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    Spell Slinger Michaek's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Claytonde View Post

    Not counting the improved odds of 6% by having the 4 other premiums, I had a 6% chance each roll to get a pc bag or one of the two remaining premiums. Dividing 100/6 gives me 16.6666667 which is the amount of MP it should take to get one of these five items (3 PC bags or 2 prems). I did twice that and got neither.
    That's not how it works, sorry. If you roll on the unique tier and it gives you something you already it, it re-rolls completely fresh e.g. on the complete table not on the unique row. Sorry

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    Sargaash the Mighty equal
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    Quote Originally Posted by Claytonde View Post
    Not Guaranteed but if the odds are correct it should happen right?
    "Should"? Nope. Might.
    If you want to "ignore" someone on the forum just click their name, click profile, and beneath their avatar you'll see an ignore link. Comes in really handy at times when you don't want to deal with that certain someone's constant negativity.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Michaek View Post
    That's not how it works, sorry. If you roll on the unique tier and it gives you something you already it, it re-rolls completely fresh e.g. on the complete table not on the unique row. Sorry
    if that is not how it works then the odds are a lie.

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    Good bye game - some great people here but I'm so tired of spending money for nothing when I could buy Xbox or steam games.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Claytonde View Post
    if that is not how it works then the odds are a lie.
    the odds per roll are exactly as shown. if you roll an "invalid" item that is unique, it just rolls over.

    there is a *small* shift in the odds to your favor for having some of the unique items. but it would be more like going from 2% to 2.25% if even that much.

    the thing you are missing is, yes there is 6% that *on net* is divided over the other items. but it is divided over *all* of the remaining items in relation to the beginning odds. for a simple case, you have 2 items left, one is 10% and the other is 80% and you have 10% "invalid" items. the effective rates for those two items counting for the invalid items would be 11.11% and 88.89%. ie, most of the freed up invalid percentage will go to the higher probability items.

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    Forum Moderator Ayah's Avatar
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    It's well rng


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    Farmhand tamashii's Avatar
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    The chances of not getting anything from top tier in so many rolls are about 20%.

    Not exactly lucky, but also not extremly unordinary.
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    Ignoring roll overs from unique items the odds are (100%-% chance you get a wanted drop, in this case 6%)^number of times you roll the MP. That's the chance you do not get anything you wanted. So in this case 94% ^ 33 or just shy of 13% chance of not getting anything/87% chance of getting at least 1 drop you wanted. Basically it's only a little more likely for getting nothing as for a coin landing on heads 3 times in a row.

    As Snowstar said the 6% chance from the unique items you had are not added in as a straight % but are instead a reroll (which will increase you chances but not nearly as much). if for example out of all your pulls you landed on one of those once the odds would be 94% ^ 34 now, but no way to tell on our side how often that happened. (There are various mathematical formulas that can give the most likely odds in the end within a standard deviation, but don't have them mentally handy at a moments notice).

    All that said I can definitely imagine the frustration and can't ever really be surprised when MP gambling turns off a player from playing in the future
    Last edited by suavio610; 27th November 2017 at 03:16. Reason: fix basic grammar issue

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    that is why they call it gambling....its never a sure thing

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    Quote Originally Posted by Claytonde View Post
    Good bye game - some great people here but I'm so tired of spending money for nothing when I could buy Xbox or steam games.
    Goodbye claytonde, hope youre leaving for real.
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    The specific formula has been worked out time and again, and based upon a several-years-old claim from the Dev's that the re-roll is not specific to any given tier, we can math out any given odds (though it gets wildly tedious). We know that the odds get redistributed between all the values, and therefore the RELATIVE odds stay the same.

    So, if the item you want has a 1% chance to drop, and some Tier 4 item has an 8% chance to drop, no matter what else is owned you will always be 8x as likely to get that Tier 4 item as that Tier 1 item. If the odds are 1.08% (from redistribution) of the Tier 1, the Tier 4 will be 8.64%.

    The 10/20/30/40% business summarizes the effective odds, and isn't truly inaccurate, but it *can* lead players to thinking that the game rolls twice: Once for a tier, and then once for an item within that tier. However, mousing over any item you're missing should, theoretically, help clarify that point, as you can see independent odds on any item. This confusion is what led to people asking in the first place.

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    Not that it is any consolation to you, but loot boxes in gaming in general are starting to come under more political scrutiny:
    https://arstechnica.com/gaming/2017/...hem-predatory/

    Might be interesting to see what happens with any legislation about this in the future.

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    Golden Garden Monk cerealis's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Michaek View Post
    That's not how it works, sorry. If you roll on the unique tier and it gives you something you already it, it re-rolls completely fresh e.g. on the complete table not on the unique row. Sorry
    This^ this is how it works

    My view on it is as follows:

    Unfortunetly rolling for say machon at 1.5% and owning every single thing in there will mean 1.5 out of 100 rather then getting a higher cumulative chance on the item you miss you actually get imposible odds

    This is the reason why seasoned players avoid MP like the plague, basicly you are being punished for owning half the items by reroll rather then rewarded by increase in high tier items

    so if it lands on something you have it simply rerolls so it counts liek you don't even own them, assuming 100 PC for a premium (a new strong one) there is no number to make the old ones worth it if 6 prem in line at 1.5 then 9% chance for a premium so out of 10 -12 trys you should get that premium (at 120-144PC) but if you own 5 out of 6 you need about 60-120 trys to actually get the premium so it costs 1000PC ish

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    Quote Originally Posted by Claytonde View Post
    Good bye game - some great people here but I'm so tired of spending money for nothing when I could buy Xbox or steam games.
    Leaving because you didn't get what you want... Sounds like you may believe you are privileged or something, but I dunno.
    If anything you just don't understand what "Random" means in "Random Number Generator", better known as RNG.
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    Sargaash the Mighty equal Ahlyis's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cerealis View Post
    Unfortunetly rolling for say machon at 1.5% and owning every single thing in there will mean 1.5 out of 100
    Not quite. If Machaon was originally 1.5% and you own several of the other unique items which totaled (for example) 6%, then the odds to get Machaon on your next attempt are 1.5 out of 94, not 1.5 out of 100.

    Quote Originally Posted by cerealis View Post
    rather then getting a higher cumulative chance on the item you miss you actually get imposible odds
    Not at all. You actually do get a higher chance on the item you want. It's just a very small odds increase. Rather than Machaon swelling up to fill the 10 out of 100 for all of the top tier if you had everything else, Machaon simply becomes 1.5 out of 91.5. It is an increase, just not a big one.
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    I don't know whether this is true or not, but when I calculate how many time I have to buy to get a 1% item, I do .99^x where x is the number of MP I want to buy

    For example, if I buy 10 pack, the chance of me not getting that 1% item is .99^10 which is 90.4%,

    If I buy 100 pack, the chance of me not getting the item at least once is 36.6% which mean the chance of getting the item atleast once is 63.4% which is far from certain.

    This continue till 538 pack which have a rounded 0% chance of never getting the item, so... yea even 537 pack have a rounded 1% chance of not getting it.

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    The above made really good sense in that it signified that each roll give you a 1% chance to get the item, the different is that it show the unlikeliness that you will not get the item twice, thrice, etc.
    Edit: So 33 pack give you a 87% of getting atleast one of the item, or 89% of I understand Sycall logic

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    Farmhand tamashii's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by haidao0923 View Post
    I don't know whether this is true or not, but when I calculate how many time I have to buy to get a 1% item, I do .99^x where x is the number of MP I want to buy

    For example, if I buy 10 pack, the chance of me not getting that 1% item is .99^10 which is 90.4%,

    If I buy 100 pack, the chance of me not getting the item at least once is 36.6% which mean the chance of getting the item atleast once is 63.4% which is far from certain.

    This continue till 538 pack which have a rounded 0% chance of never getting the item, so... yea even 537 pack have a rounded 1% chance of not getting it.
    This is how it's done. If the question is "How likely am I to (not) get that item with x buys".
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